Sunday, October 05, 2008

Nanos Knows Best

Conservatives are losing ground compared to the last election. Who is picking it up? Answer: The undecided and the NDP. Conservative voters are looking for a new home.

Last Election / Today's Polls / Difference
CPoC..36.3 .......... 34 .......... -2 ....... CPoC
Libs..30.2 .......... 30 .......... same...... Libs
NDP...17.5 .......... 19 .......... +2 ....... NDP
Bloc..10.5 .......... 10 .......... same ..... Bloc
Green. 5.5 ........... 7 .......... -1 ....... Greens

We have no such thing as either an NDP surge, or an improving CPoC, or a surge in support for the Greens. At this point in the election, surges are not happening. We some undecided going to the NDP.

We do have steady support for the liberals and support loses for the conservatives going principally to the undecided. Some conservative voters are looking for a new home and are thinking NDP, or will not vote this time around. Liberal undecided tend to firm in the last week in the campaign - that is the question here.

Compared to this point in the last election, the CPoC is losing ground and that is significant with one week left.

If the economy continues to tank, all bets are off as the incumbent will have a material disadvantage on voting day. If the market firms in the next week, then the CPoC may get its soft support back.

It's the economy, stupid!

Cheers,

Eugene Parks
updated Oct 5 based on Nanos Numbers ending October 4th

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